I write this on Thursday morning, Zagreb-time. Biden stands at 264 electoral votes (Fox News count), with four states left to count. At some point in the next 24 hours, Biden will be declared the President-elect.
Much of America is asking itself this morning: How did Biden make up so much ground when the mail-in votes were counted?
I can think of three factors.
- Democrats have traditionally used vote-by-mail more than Republicans have, so you would expect there to be more Dem votes than GOP. You can see proof of this in the counts of vote-by-mail results in states that allowed those votes to be counted before Election Day. Vote-by-mail results in those states heavily favored Biden, and Dems outnumbered Republicans when party affiliation was announced.
- For months, Trump has been telling everyone who would listen that they shouldn’t use vote-by-mail. He and his supporters should not then claim be shocked that most of the votes-by-mail would be for Biden.
- COVID. Trump voters are more likely to think that COVID is a hoax, and to go to rallies or vote in person. Biden voters are more likely to be afraid of COVID, and to choose voting-by-mail instead of voting in person.
Add those three factors together, and you should expect that Biden will dominate the votes-by-mail.
Why did Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc., NOT count the votes-by-mail before Election Day? Answer: the secretaries of state and/or governors of those states attempted to get the GOP-controlled legislatures in those states to change the laws so as to provide for early counting. The GOP-legislatures, likely under orders from the White House, refused.